Hi All,
Hope you are having a great week. WeWork probably isnât with the recent news that they are slashing their IPO valuation between $10B and $12B. My estimation is $10B and that too is being generous. Letâs call it an Adam Neumann charisma tax! That guy can sell for sure. Ben Thompson has written up a bull case for wework that is an interesting take and I quote âThe bull case is that WeWork has seized the opportunity presented by that capital to make a credible play to be the office of choice for companies all over the world, effectively intermediating and commoditizing traditional landlords. It is utterly audacious, and for that reason free of competitionâÂ
Scott Galloway has predicted that âWeWTFâ will shelve its IPO, but I donât think that is going to happen. My reasoning is that the longer the S1 stays out there and the more that the smart analysts get into the weeds the less attractive the IPO looks. I think the IPO will happen and the valuation will be around $10B. The stock will likely not change value all that much until the first quarter as a public company
So letâs take a tally of the winners and losers at this stage (Winners : Adam Neumann and co, who rigged this game, Losers : Employees, VCâs including SoftBank, and in the long run the real estate companies who executed long term leases with the âWeâ company. Well, âweâ definitely saw this one crashing into a wall. Masayashi Son is definitely not having a great weekend!
Before we go into this weekâs reads here is a quote from Quiet : The Power of introverts, for all you introverts out there (me included!)Â
âIntroverts are capable of acting like extroverts for the sake of work they consider important, people they love, or anything they value highlyâ
1) Positional scarcity [LINK]
Alex Danco has written a really cool article on positional scarcity. The premise is quite simple, if you control eyeballs you can control who gets premium placement. He describes grocery stores, review sites, dating apps, consulting companies to hone in on his point. In some ways any âpay to playâ company has to create artificial scarcity in an unlimited internet world that is not based on physical boundaries. He finally touches on loyalty and how companies are creating loyalty businesses.Â
2) Brands and Exercise [LINK]
This is a new trend for sure. As we know these young Millennials and GenZâs are living in a world where experiences matter, feeling connected to the brand matters. Back in the 80âs brands were a status symbol, not a connection. You as a consumer who could afford $1000 shoes were not âconnected to the brandâ, you were instead, âconnected to the superiorityâ that the brand made you feel. I think this is what brands don't get. Consumers today want to feel âgoodâÂ
3) What the hell is going on? [LINK]
What the hell is going on? A brilliant read on the disintermediation of politics, commerce, and education. The internet can be used for good and bad. This article highlights some of the good (education, commerce) and also some of the bad (politics, deeper views with no middle ground). I truly wonder if this information overload has caused me to become an automaton and use my memory for non worthy things because for everything else there is Wiki, google, evernote, yelp and a million other apps/services that are a logical extension to my own mental processing power. Read this article!Â
4) Should you ask for permission or beg for forgiveness? [LINK]
Should tech companies skirt the law, potentially violate and âbeg for forgivenessâ after the fact? This points to the fact that regulation is so behind tech even in developed economies
5) Digital phenotyping? A privacy or a curse? [LINK]
A 2018 autism behavioral study, for example, used YouTube videos and wearables to classify typical and atypical movements
Using digital phenotyping to determine illnesses? Is this a fair use of your data? Should you consent similar to how youâd consent when your organs are donated for research? Also read this article from Ben Evans on face recognition. While there are good and bad actors, the question really is how do you separate the use cases? What if medical insurance companies require you to submit videos, photos, call logs, device usage time, TV queues, driving habits, food and exercise habits in order to measure your risk level and your pricing? Is that fair to the other people who live cleaner lives?Â
Bietz studies how âdigital exhaustââthe data we create with our mouse strokes, selfies, and even battery usageâis turned into health data. Digital exhaust feels ephemeral, but lasts forever and can be personally identifiable. Bietz notes that it can be nearly impossible to ask permission from the people who generate this exhaust to use it in large-scale scraping projects, and thereâs no specific threshold that makes a sample too large to ask for permission. Researchers have taken different approaches to consent when a study has a large cohort, including directly asking the platform for access to user data, and running opt-in ads.
6) Get paid in crypto
The below excerpt is from a FT article($) caught my eye. The article also describes crypto. What is interesting is would you as an employee be willing to take cryptocurrencies as a payment instead of legal tender. The answer lies in a basic principle of money âmedium of exchangeâ
âA good example of this technological myopia comes in a recent episode of Who Do You Think You Are? featuring actress Kate Winslet. The BBC show, which helps celebrities track their genealogical past, saw Ms Winslet travel to an impressive Swedish estate where her great great great great-grandfather had once been a stable groom. There she learnt her relative was paid entirely in tokens that could only be redeemed for goods on the estate, making him a de facto bonded slave of the landlordâÂ
7) Tech narrative and time [LINK]
A good read on how companies are judged in the valley on a 12 hour clock. Which hour is your company?Â
8) Stanford and Success [LINK]
This article talks about how kids at a premier education institute think these days. The value of a formal education is a signal and a heuristic.Â
9) Prepping for an interview? I thought these questions were super insightful and thought provoking [LINK]
One of my favs was When have you felt the lowest in your career? Did you realize how you felt in the moment? How did you respond?
It clearly articulates that it is ok to not be 100% sure of what one is doing and take risks and even fail. When things are bad the only thing that will make one get through it is knowing that things will become better. It is not a question of if, its a question of when
10) Computing History [LINK]
Steve Jobs and the bicycle for the mind. In retrospect a lot of this might seem obvious now but imagine back in the 80âs the depth and clarity of thinking that jobs had?
11) People as venture capital [LINK]
Would you accept an ISA? What if you could fund your MBA with an ISA? This is like venture capital except you can only participate in the upside of income for a short while. The other thing to think about is how would these work in a recessionary economy since these are time bound. Interesting conundrums and I think education is at the stage where one size doesnt fit all and weâre going to see a lot of changes to the education system
Notes on product market fit [LINK]
Interesting anecdotes about Product Market Fit